Wat Poetin drijft

Volodimir Zelenski

Vanmorgen sprak Volodimir Zelenski de Tweede Kamer toe via een videobel-verbinding. Zelenski, die inmiddels de statuur van een groot staatsman heeft verworven, riep de Nederlandse regering op om meer wapens te leveren aan Oekraïne, met name meer Stingers en luchtafweersystemen. In zijn speech verwees de Oekraïense president naar enkele ingrijpende gebeurtenissen in het Nederlandse verleden, zoals het bombardement op Rotterdam in mei 1940 en het neerhalen van vlucht MH17, in juli 2014, door Oekraïense separatisten.

Zelenski verwees ook naar 1 april 1572 - morgen precies 450 jaar geleden - toen de Spanjaarden door de watergeuzen verdreven werden uit Den Briel, waarna de tot dan toe weinig succesvolle vrijheidsoorlog van de Nederlanden tegen de tirannie van de Spaanse koning een opzienbarende kentering begon te vertonen. Hij zei daarover: "De tolerantie en verscheidenheid in Europa die daardoor ontstaan is, wordt nu aangevallen." Waarmee hij waarschijnlijk bedoelde dat de Nederlandse volksopstand - resulterend in het uitroepen van de republiek - het uiteindelijk had gewonnen van de repressieve Spaanse autocratie en daarmee een belangrijke stempel had gedrukt op de ontwikkeling van democratische processen in Europa en later eveneens in die van de Nieuwe Wereld.*1

 

Pieter Waterdrinker

Op 20 februari 2018 was schrijver/journalist Pieter Waterdrinker te gast in een aflevering van het Studium Generale-programma van de Universiteit Utrecht. Waarschijnlijk is hij de beste Rusland-duider die er momenteel in Nederland rondloopt, vooral natuurlijk door het feit dat hij er zo lang gewoond en er veel over geschreven heeft. Al veertig jaar houdt hij zich bezig met het doorgronden van de Russische cultuur en geschiedenis.

Ook over Vladimir Poetin heeft hij een uitgesproken mening. Volgens de schrijver, die wordt geïnterviewd door filosoof Herman Philipse, hebben we in het Westen tot nu toe te weinig moeite genomen om de psyche van de Russische leider te doorgronden. En dat is vreemd, want het toekomstige lot van Rusland, en dus ook dat van Europa, hangt, volgens Waterdrinker, in sterke mate mede van Poetin af.

Ruim een maand na de Russische inval in Oekraïne kunnen we vaststellen dat hij het tijdens dat interview van vier jaar geleden op tal van punten bij het rechte eind heeft gehad. Zowel de ziel van Poetin als die van het Russische volk worden er iets toegankelijker door. Hetgeen vanzelfsprekend niet betekent dat we begrip dienen op te brengen voor de vele (oorlogs)misdaden die het Russische leger momenteel in Oekraïne begaat. Laat staan voor de volstrekt verwerpelijke invasie aldaar.


©Huub Drenth

 

 

*1 Zie: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Rn_VzqqH1Q

 

Hatred is a hidden treasure

 

Why Vladimir Putin has already lost this war

Yuval Noah Harari, The Guardian, February 28, 2022

The Russians may yet conquer Ukraine. But Ukrainians have shown in the past few days that they will not let them hold it.

 

 
BBC News, March 2, 2022.

Less than a week into the war, it seems increasingly likely that Vladimir Putin is heading towards a historic defeat. He may win all the battles but still lose the war. Putin’s dream of rebuilding the Russian empire has always rested on the lie that Ukraine isn’t a real nation, that Ukrainians aren’t a real people, and that the inhabitants of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Lviv yearn for Moscow’s rule. That’s a complete lie – Ukraine is a nation with more than a thousand years of history, and Kyiv was already a major metropolis when Moscow was not even a village. But the Russian despot has told his lie so many times that he apparently believes it himself.

When planning his invasion of Ukraine, Putin could count on many known facts. He knew that militarily Russia dwarfs Ukraine. He knew that Nato would not send troops to help Ukraine. He knew that European dependence on Russian oil and gas would make countries like Germany hesitate about imposing stiff sanctions. Based on these known facts, his plan was to hit Ukraine hard and fast, decapitate its government, establish a puppet regime in Kyiv, and ride out the western sanctions.

 

The city of Zjitomir in northern Ukraine.

But there was one big unknown about this plan. As the Americans learned in Iraq and the Soviets learned in Afghanistan, it is much easier to conquer a country than to hold it. Putin knew he had the power to conquer Ukraine. But would the Ukrainian people just accept Moscow’s puppet regime? Putin gambled that they would. After all, as he repeatedly explained to anyone willing to listen, Ukraine isn’t a real nation, and the Ukrainians aren’t a real people. In 2014, people in Crimea hardly resisted the Russian invaders. Why should 2022 be any different?

With each passing day, it is becoming clearer that Putin’s gamble is failing. The Ukrainian people are resisting with all their heart, winning the admiration of the entire world – and winning the war. Many dark days lie ahead. The Russians may still conquer the whole of Ukraine. But to win the war, the Russians would have to hold Ukraine, and they can do that only if the Ukrainian people let them. This seems increasingly unlikely to happen.

 

Ukrainian freedom fighter.

Each Russian tank destroyed and each Russian soldier killed increases the Ukrainians’ courage to resist. And each Ukrainian killed deepens the Ukrainians’ hatred of the invaders. Hatred is the ugliest of emotions. But for oppressed nations, hatred is a hidden treasure. Buried deep in the heart, it can sustain resistance for generations. To reestablish the Russian empire, Putin needs a relatively bloodless victory that will lead to a relatively hateless occupation. By spilling more and more Ukrainian blood, Putin is making sure his dream will never be realised. It won’t be Mikhail Gorbachev’s name written on the death certificate of the Russian empire: it will be Putin’s. Gorbachev left Russians and Ukrainians feeling like siblings; Putin has turned them into enemies, and has ensured that the Ukrainian nation will henceforth define itself in opposition to Russia.

Nations are ultimately built on stories. Each passing day adds more stories that Ukrainians will tell not only in the dark days ahead, but in the decades and generations to come. The president who refused to flee the capital, telling the US that he needs ammunition, not a ride; the soldiers from Snake Island who told a Russian warship to “go fuck yourself”; the civilians who tried to stop Russian tanks by sitting in their path. This is the stuff nations are built from. In the long run, these stories count for more than tanks.

The Russian despot should know this as well as anyone. As a child, he grew up on a diet of stories about German atrocities and Russian bravery in the siege of Leningrad. He is now producing similar stories, but casting himself in the role of Hitler.

The stories of Ukrainian bravery give resolve not only to the Ukrainians, but to the whole world. They give courage to the governments of European nations, to the US administration, and even to the oppressed citizens of Russia. If Ukrainians dare to stop a tank with their bare hands, the German government can dare to supply them with some anti-tank missiles, the US government can dare to cut Russia off Swift, and Russian citizens can dare to demonstrate their opposition to this senseless war.

 

Desperate protesters in Kyiv.

We can all be inspired to dare to do something, whether it is make a donation, welcome refugees, or help with the struggle online. The war in Ukraine will shape the future of the entire world. If tyranny and aggression are allowed to win, we will all suffer the consequences. There is no point to remain just observers. It’s time to stand up and be counted.

Unfortunately, this war is likely to be long-lasting. Taking different forms, it may well continue for years. But the most important issue has already been decided. The last few days have proved to the entire world that Ukraine is a very real nation, that Ukrainians are a very real people, and that they definitely don’t want to live under a new Russian empire. The main question left open is how long it will take for this message to penetrate the Kremlin’s thick walls.

*

Yuval Noah Harari is a historian and author of Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/vladimir-putin-war-russia-ukraine