Europe must heed Mark Carney – and embrace a painful emancipation from the US
EU leaders would do well to meditate on the seminal lesson that the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, delivered at this year’s World Economic Forum.
In an incisive analysis of the new age of predatory great powers, where might is increasingly asserted as right, Carney not only accurately defined the coarsening of international relations as “a rupture, not a transition”. He also outlined how liberal democratic “middle powers” such as Canada – but also European countries – must build coalitions to counter coercion and defend as much as possible of the principles of territorial integrity, the rule of law, free trade, climate action and human rights. He spelled out a hedging strategy that Canada is already pursuing, diversifying its trade and supply chains and even opening its market to Chinese electric vehicles to counter Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canadian-made automobiles.
Carney’s clear-eyed recognition that the age of the western-led “rules-based international order” – with all its flaws and inconsistencies – is not coming back contrasts with dithering among European leaders, many of whom still seem to believe they can flatter, bribe and appease Trump into taking their interests into account. Fear of Trump storming out of Nato or abandoning Ukraine to Russian dismemberment has so far prevented them from taking a strong stance against his bullying of allies.
Nuuk, Greenland.
The US president’s insistence on taking possession of Greenland, and his threat of punitive tariffs against European allies who sent a small reconnaissance force to Greenland last week in support of Denmark, should be the red line that finally triggers a united and firm European response. Yet nothing is less certain, with EU leaders still torn between de-escalation and bargaining on the one hand, and escalation to create a balance of power before any negotiation, on the other.
Europe must heed Mark Carney – and embrace a painful emancipation from the US
Carney’s clear-eyed recognition that the age of the western-led “rules-based international order” – with all its flaws and inconsistencies – is not coming back contrasts with dithering among European leaders, many of whom still seem to believe they can flatter, bribe and appease Trump into taking their interests into account. Fear of Trump storming out of Nato or abandoning Ukraine to Russian dismemberment has so far prevented them from taking a strong stance against his bullying of allies.
Nuuk, Greenland.
The US president’s insistence on taking possession of Greenland, and his threat of punitive tariffs against European allies who sent a small reconnaissance force to Greenland last week in support of Denmark, should be the red line that finally triggers a united and firm European response. Yet nothing is less certain, with EU leaders still torn between de-escalation and bargaining on the one hand, and escalation to create a balance of power before any negotiation, on the other.
Trump muddied the waters after giving a belligerent speech in Davos, by announcing he had “formed the framework of a future deal” on Greenland in talks with Nato’s Mark Rutte and would not, after all, be imposing those threatened additional tariffs. But Europeans should not be lulled into dropping their guard.
Carney’s lesson in Davos could not have been clearer and more timely. “When we only negotiate bilaterally with a hegemon, we negotiate from weakness. We accept what’s offered. We compete with each other to be the most accommodating,” he warned. “This is not sovereignty. It’s the performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination. In a world of great power rivalry, the countries in between have a choice – compete with each other for favour, or combine to create a third path with impact.”
In other words, Europe can only hope to stop Trump’s abuse of US power if it acts with unity and strength, and joins forces with like-minded countries such as Canada, but also Japan, Australia, Brazil and India, to build new trade pacts and rules.*
Paul Taylor/The Guardian
* Visit this post on the site of the World Economic Forum to read the full transcript of the speech by
Mark Carney in Davos. The post also contains a video of Carney's complete performance on January 20, 2026.
Carney’s lesson in Davos could not have been clearer and more timely. “When we only negotiate bilaterally with a hegemon, we negotiate from weakness. We accept what’s offered. We compete with each other to be the most accommodating,” he warned. “This is not sovereignty. It’s the performance of sovereignty while accepting subordination. In a world of great power rivalry, the countries in between have a choice – compete with each other for favour, or combine to create a third path with impact.”
In other words, Europe can only hope to stop Trump’s abuse of US power if it acts with unity and strength, and joins forces with like-minded countries such as Canada, but also Japan, Australia, Brazil and India, to build new trade pacts and rules.*
Paul Taylor/The Guardian
